Political scenarios in the run-up to 2014 presidential election1439340

One of today's imposing political scenes is the emergence of non-Javanese political figures, this kind of as Jusuf Kalla, Surya Paloh, Aburizal Bakrie and Hatta Rajasa, following more than 3 a long time of hiatus. For the duration of the preceding 32-calendar year New Get administration, some non-Javanese figures did increase to prominence, but basically as technocrats, without political impact.

The emergence of non-Javanese figures today, as a result, requires our memory again to the 1945-1957 democracy period when a lot of non-Javanese nationwide leaders dominated the political scene.

Can these non-Javanese leaders achieve the best place of national management? This will greatly count on regardless of whether countrywide leaders of Javanese roots are completely ready to be in positions reduce than these of non-Javanese kinds. For the time getting, we need to acknowledge the reality that noteworthy Javanese figures who, since of ethnic sentiment, have better chance to get to to the top.

At the moment we uncover likely Javanese nationwide prime leader aspirants in Prabowo Subianto, Wiranto, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Jakarta Governor Joko âJokowiâ Widodo. Undeniably, current surveys reveal that Prabowo of the Fantastic Indonesia Motion (Gerindra) Get together emerges as the most well-known chief for the top countrywide leadership.

Wiranto of the Peopleâs Conscience (Hanura) Social gathering, on the other hand, has the prospective to be more popular in the close to long term than he is right now. But this will only happen on problem that âHary effectâ performs properly. As a media mogul, Hary Tanoesoedibjo, who only recently joined the Celebration, has the final word in positioning Wiranto into the orbit of public consideration via wide and too much publication by means of his media chain of Tv set stations, and electronic and print media.

Megawati of the Indonesian Democratic Get together of Struggle (PDI-P) is consistently taken into account as a likely national leader. Her potential to enjoy 20 million ballots in the 2009 presidential election is believed to continue to be unchanged thanks to its strong support from loyalists of Sukarno, her father and the countryâs founding president. Must Megawati â herself a president from 2001-2004 â operate once again next 12 months, she has a wonderful prospect to recapture the countryâs top executive post.

Jokowi, a possible darkish horse in the race, has the benefit of his âsimplicity lookâ and his accomplishment in the course of his conditions as mayor of Surakarta, Central Java, experienced reverberated to the power middle in Jakarta. His victory in the 2012 Jakarta gubernatorial election relied intensely on the Jakartansâ spell on his âsimplicity lookâ instead than on the political get-togethers that supported him.

It is apparent that the race to the countryâs best government put up stays a tall get as the way to the best will be accompanied by huge polarization and repolarization of social forces that will mark the dynamics of the 2014 presidential election. Although awaiting the rise of Wirantoâs acceptance, Probowo deserves to receive a little bit a lot more focus. Since the 2009 presidential election, Prabowo developed his impression as, like Hugo Chaves from Venezeula, a populist and anti-worldwide capitalist leader. Currently being the working mate of Megawati in the 2009 election is a large political expenditure for him as his image carries on to be conserved in the collective minds of the individuals.

Even so, Probowoâs âpolitical headwayâ would be challenged by urban motion of intellectuals and âenlightened circlesâ, including a part in the navy elites, who would assiduously attempt to stem his political upsurge.

The root of this âurban movementâ is the 1996-1998 kidnapping of professional-democracy activists. It is publicly acknowledged that Prabowo was the commander of the Armyâs Specific Forces (Kopassus) when some of its members ended up concerned in the incident.

As extended as this mental resentment evolves within the constrained urban educated circles, theoretically Probowoâs political stride would go unchecked. Beside their tiny number, these urban intellectual circles have no successful means to task their enlightened consciousness into the peopleâs minds. The difficulty is that, their persuasive pressure is penetrative ample into the countrywide elites circles. It is in this context that Megawati and Jokowi are at the forefront.

Iâm tempted to say that for the sake of stemming Prabowoâs political system, these mental circles would try out to drive Jokowi forward. Even though his management in foremost Jakarta is yet place to the test, his reputation would skyrocket after he will get his credential as a presidential applicant. The pushing element of his popularity is the perception that Jokowi is the accurate embodiment of Marhaenism â Sukarnoâs formulated socio-financial developmental concepts. Considerably from artificial look, Jokowi is really an archetype of a Marhaenist.

This scenerio, nonetheless, wouldnât be a smooth hatch as its accomplishment will depend on whether the two Megawati and her daughter Puan Maharani are completely ready to give this golden possibility to Jokowi. The city center class, therefore, would organize option script: persuading Megawati herself to go into the political fight.

Viewing that Megawatiâs toughness today is not as big as for the duration of the 2004 basic elections, the urban intellectuals would search for a strong and agile working mate for the 2014 presidential election. It is in this context that the aforementioned non-Javanese figures are the prospective candidates. The urban intellectuals, therefore, would not be hesitant to see the subsequent pairs: Megawati-Jusuf Kalla, Megawati-Surya Paloh, Megawati-Aburizal Bakrie and Megawati-Hatta Rajasa, as alternate options.

However, there is something to be completely pondered. Like Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the 2004 presidential election, Prabowo is âa increasing starâ nowadays. He possesses leeway to decide on his pairs, this sort of as Dahlan Iskan, Mahfud MD or even Jokowi himself.

The creator is a political-financial observer and a founder of the Institute for the Study and Development of Enterprise Ethics (LSPEU) Indonesia).

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